As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

UK’s Military Shrinkage and Defence Spending Debate

Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised concerns about the UK’s declining defence spending, calling it a threat to national security. In his recent critique, he argued that the government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) has failed to adequately fund the military, leaving Britain vulnerable to emerging global challenges.

Armed Forces Reductions Since 1990

Since the end of the Cold War in 1990, the UK’s military has undergone significant downsizing. The army, which once had 153,000 regular soldiers, now stands at 73,790. Despite the 2025 SDR aiming to maintain the regular force above 73,000, applications for recruitment have dropped by approximately 40% in the same year. The navy has also seen a reduction, with its fleet of major combat ships decreasing from 48 in 1990 to just 17 today—13 destroyers and 6 frigates. Meanwhile, the RAF’s combat aircraft count has fallen from over 300 to a mix of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II jets, though these modern aircraft are technologically advanced.

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”

Emerging Threats and Technological Shifts

The integration of uncrewed aircraft systems into the UK’s military strategy marks a shift in operational capabilities. These drones, which did not exist in 1990, have become critical in modern conflicts, with analysts noting their role in the Ukraine war—where they reportedly caused more casualties than traditional artillery. However, critics argue that the UK must invest more in such technologies to keep pace with evolving threats.

Government Response and Spending Targets

In response to Robertson’s warnings, the government claims it is set to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, with a goal of reaching 3% in the next parliamentary term. This target, however, has been described as modest, given the steady decline in defence funding since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The UK also pledged to meet a NATO goal of spending 5% of GDP on national security by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to core defence and the remainder covering infrastructure protection and civil preparedness.

Currently, the UK’s 2025 spending of 2.3% of GDP places it near the midpoint of NATO members’ allocations, according to the alliance’s data. Yet, this figure contrasts with the rising proportion of GDP dedicated to welfare programs, which is projected to reach 4.3% by the end of the decade. While welfare spending has historically been lower than defence funding, its growth is driven by increased claims for benefits like Personal Independence Payments (PIP), which have surged due to factors including mental health conditions.

Procurement Challenges and Project Delays

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) oversees 47 of the government’s 213 Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) in 2024-25. A recent National Audit Office (NAO) report highlighted that 12 of these projects are rated ‘Red’—indicating that their successful completion seems unlikely. The report also criticized the MoD’s procurement process, noting that contracts for projects exceeding £20 million often take six and a half years to finalize. This delay contrasts with the 2025 SDR’s call for a “segmented approach” to accelerate contract delivery within two years.

Only three NATO countries—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—exceeded the 3.5% GDP defence spending threshold in 2025, though Estonia and Norway were close. The UK’s current spending, while above the midpoint, has faced scrutiny for its pace and efficiency. As military analysts point to heightened risks from Russia, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and questions about the US’s commitment to NATO, the debate over defence investment remains contentious.