Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose

Beijing Promised to ‘Fight Back’ Over Taiwan Leader’s US Visit. But This Time It Has More to Lose

The upcoming encounter between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California has stirred worries of a renewed Chinese pressure strategy, reminiscent of the intense campaign launched after then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei last year. During that event, Beijing intensified military operations, conducting extensive drills and launching missiles into Taiwan’s surrounding waters. Simultaneously, it deployed numerous warplanes across the critical median line of the Taiwan Strait, signaling a strong stance against perceived sovereignty violations.

China’s retaliation extended beyond military actions, impacting diplomatic and economic ties with the US. Issues ranging from military cooperation to climate change efforts were sidelined, as Beijing sought to assert its dominance. Now, the threat of a “resolutely fight back” looms again if Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy proceeds. The US, however, allowed Tsai to stop in the country during her Central American travels, a move Beijing views as a provocation that could escalate tensions.

“This puts the burden on China not to overreact, because any overreaction is only going to push China further away from the world,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.

Tsai, undeterred, emphasized her resolve during her 10-day trip, vowing not to let “external pressure” deter Taiwan from engaging with global partners. Analysts suggest the meeting’s location in California and timing—during a tense period in China’s foreign relations and before Taiwan’s presidential election—might encourage Beijing to adopt a more measured approach. “They have to consider the consequences of overreaction,” Sun added.

The meeting also occurs amid heightened US-China tensions, fueled by disputes over a Chinese surveillance balloon and semiconductor supply chains. Last August, China’s actions left Taiwan grappling with military incursions that disrupted the previously stable boundary in the strait. Meanwhile, the Central News Agency confirmed Tsai’s planned meeting with McCarthy, highlighting its symbolic significance for the island’s diplomatic standing.

“She has this image as the Taiwanese president who has taken US-Taiwan relations to new heights, and who … has been able to give Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility,” noted Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program.

With China’s Communist Party asserting Taiwan as part of its territory, the island remains under constant pressure. Over the past decade, Beijing has bolstered its military and economic influence, aiming to secure control. Yet, Tsai’s growing international presence underscores the delicate balance between assertive diplomacy and the risk of provoking a stronger response from Beijing.