Tuesday’s Wild Races for California Governor and Los Angeles Mayor, and Other Elections to Watch
Tuesday s wild races for California – Tuesday’s primary elections in six states—California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota—will shape political landscapes across the nation. Among these, California’s gubernatorial and Los Angeles mayoral races stand out as particularly contentious, with unpredictable outcomes and shifting alliances. The day’s results could redefine the trajectory of these contests, offering insight into broader trends in national politics. For Democrats, the stakes are high, as the races may determine whether their dominance in key states is solidified or challenged. For Republicans, the potential for unexpected victories remains a tantalizing possibility.
California Governor’s Race: A Shifting Landscape
The California gubernatorial race has been a rollercoaster since the early stages, marked by dramatic exits and sudden surges in support. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, initially considered a frontrunner, chose not to run, opening the door for other Democrats to step into the spotlight. However, the race took an even more unpredictable turn when front-runner Eric Swalwell withdrew after allegations of sexual assault, which he has consistently denied. His departure reshaped the field, creating opportunities for both established and emerging candidates.
Current polls indicate that three names are leading the race: two Democrats, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and businessman Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host. Becerra’s momentum gained after Swalwell’s exit, as he is seen as a more experienced and stable candidate. Steyer, on the other hand, has positioned himself as a progressive voice with a strong fundraising network. Hilton, while not a top-tier contender, has been actively working to secure the Republican nomination, leveraging support from those who back Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
“Democrats were inflamed after GOP Sen. Steve Daines announced his retirement at the last minute in a gambit intended to foreclose a strong Democratic nominee and to anoint Republican Kurt Alme, a former U.S. attorney, as his replacement.”
Hilton’s strategy hinges on the possibility of a two-Republican race, which he believes could weaken the Democratic candidate’s odds in November. However, even if he makes it to the general election, the likely opponent would be a Democrat with a strong track record, making his chances slim. If the final two candidates are both Democrats, the race could become more competitive, with implications for California’s political direction.
Los Angeles Mayor’s Race: A Battle for Urban Leadership
Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, the mayoral race has become a focal point for voters concerned about the city’s response to recent crises. Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt has emerged as a prominent figure in Republican circles, capitalizing on dissatisfaction with Democratic Mayor Karen Bass. His campaign highlights issues such as the devastation caused by wildfires and the ongoing homelessness crisis, framing his bid as a fresh alternative to the current administration.
Pratt’s candidacy has drawn attention from national conservative media, positioning him as a rising star in the GOP. However, he faces stiff competition from two Democrats: Karen Bass, the incumbent, and Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a democratic socialist. Recent polls show a tight race, with Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%. While these numbers are close, they underscore the deepening divide in the city’s political leanings.
Despite his current standing, Pratt’s path to victory is fraught with challenges. A significant portion of likely voters, 57%, have expressed unfavorable views of him, matching Bass’s own disapproval rate. In a hypothetical runoff, Pratt trails Bass by 18 points and Raman by 17, indicating that even with a strong showing, he would need to overcome a steep uphill battle. The undecided voters, who make up a notable portion of the electorate, may decide the outcome, but their support could be swayed by broader national trends or local issues.
Other Key Races: Iowa and Montana
While California and Los Angeles dominate the headlines, other races in Iowa and Montana could also have significant repercussions. In Iowa, the Senate race is a critical battleground for Democrats seeking to expand their influence in a state that has historically been a stronghold for Republicans. GOP Senator Joni Ernst is retiring, leaving an open seat that will be contested by state Rep. Josh Turek, a paralympian, and populist state Sen. Zach Wahls. The winner will face Rep. Ashley Hinson, a GOP favorite, in the general election.
Democrats are optimistic about the potential of State Auditor Rob Sand, who has strong support among progressive voters. However, the race is not without challenges. Trump’s 2024 victory in Iowa, which he carried by 13 points, has left some Democrats wary of the state’s political leanings. Nonetheless, they hope that his recent tariffs on agricultural products could alienate key GOP voters, particularly in a farming-heavy region where economic concerns are paramount.
Montana presents a different dynamic. Here, Democrats are maneuvering to secure a better path to victory, even if it means supporting a weaker candidate. Some prominent Democrats are pushing to rally behind independent Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, as a way to split Republican votes. This strategy mirrors tactics used in states like Nebraska, where Democrats have little chance of winning. Bodnar’s campaign is backed by Democratic former Senator Jon Tester, suggesting a calculated effort to position an independent as a potential spoiler.
At the same time, other Democrats such as former Governor Brian Schweitzer are backing former state Rep. Riley Neill, a better-funded candidate with a strong grassroots network. The decision to elevate Bodnar or Neill reflects the tension within the Democratic party, as they balance the need for a strong nominee against the desire to weaken the opposition. The outcome in Montana could serve as a test case for how Democrats navigate the top-two primary system in states where their margins are narrow.
As Tuesday’s primaries unfold, the focus will remain on California’s governor and mayoral races, but the developments in Iowa and Montana will also be closely watched. The ability of Democrats to expand their Senate map—or prevent Republicans from consolidating control—will hinge on these contests, making Tuesday a pivotal day for the nation’s political future.
