How to Read the U.S.-Iran Draft Agreement: Washington’s Major Concessions
Sandego.net – Brett McGurk, a CNN global affairs analyst, has held high-ranking roles in U.S. national security under four presidents: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Recently, the U.S. has unveiled the formal document outlining a new framework with Iran, offering a clear lens to evaluate its strategic value. While the agreement appears favorable to the United States, it also reflects a significant shift in the balance of commitments between the two nations.
Immediate Benefits for Iran
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) released over the weekend reveals a striking disparity in the obligations of the U.S. and Iran. Although the text is still under review, it already contains major concessions from Washington, which seems to be giving Iran considerable leverage. This document stands out as one of the most generous to Tehran in recent memory, providing the country with many of the demands it has historically made — and rarely fulfilled.
“Think of the agreement as two phases,” McGurk explains. “Phase 1 gets underway now, and phase 2 kicks everything else to be resolved in a ‘final agreement’ to be negotiated over the next 60 days.”
While the 60-day period may be extended with mutual consent, the immediate phase sets the stage for Iran’s key gains. The agreement’s core lies in Iran receiving substantial immediate benefits, including tens of billions of dollars, in exchange for its commitment to allow unimpeded shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This arrangement effectively rewards Iran for its strategic use of the strait as a political tool, which has been a consistent demand in previous negotiations.
Phase 1: Immediate Actions
Phase 1 of the agreement comes into effect right away, with specific provisions outlined in Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11. These articles are designed to provide Iran with tangible advantages without requiring immediate reciprocation. For instance, Article 4 and 5 focus on restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within 30 days. This involves the U.S. lifting its naval blockade and Iran clearing obstacles like mines, ensuring the strait remains open for commercial vessels.
McGurk notes that if the agreement had ended at this stage, it would already be a significant win for the U.S. and the global economy. By addressing the core issue of the strait, the U.S. avoids a potential crisis while allowing Iran to secure its economic interests. However, the agreement goes beyond this, with Iran’s obligations ending and the U.S. taking on a series of ongoing commitments.
Phase 2: The 60-Day Negotiation
Phase 2 shifts the focus to a more comprehensive final agreement, which will be negotiated within the next 60 days. This period allows both sides to work on unresolved issues, such as the fate of Iran’s frozen funds and broader sanctions relief. McGurk emphasizes that the 60-day timeline is not fixed, and both parties can agree to extend it if needed. This flexibility underscores the U.S. willingness to engage in prolonged discussions to solidify the deal.
Despite the open-ended nature of Phase 2, the agreement’s structure creates a dependency for Iran. Article 13 states that the release of frozen funds must occur before Phase 2 negotiations begin. This means Iran’s financial obligations are not entirely deferred but must be addressed in a form that satisfies the U.S. requirements immediately. The interplay between these provisions highlights the strategic depth of the agreement, where Iran’s immediate gains are tied to its future commitments.
Article 10: Sanctions Waiver
Article 10 is a cornerstone of the agreement, granting the U.S. an immediate waiver for Iran’s oil and petrochemical exports. The text specifies that the U.S. will issue these waivers shortly after the agreement is signed, allowing Iran to trade its energy resources at market prices. This provision echoes the terms of the Obama-era nuclear deal (JCPOA), but with a twist: it permits Iran to access the full extent of its exports without restrictions.
“Under this article, the U.S. immediately after the signing … will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like,” McGurk states.
Energy experts estimate that this article alone could generate $60 to $70 billion annually for Iran. Such a financial windfall is achieved with minimal effort, as Iran only needs to maintain the status quo of the strait’s openness. This dynamic suggests that the U.S. is prioritizing economic stability in the region over strict enforcement of sanctions.
Article 11: Frozen Funds
Article 11 introduces a more complex element of the agreement. While it promises the release of Iran’s frozen funds, the provision is conditional on “progress of negotiations towards a final agreement.” This caveat implies that the U.S. is not fully committing to immediate financial relief but is instead linking it to the success of Phase 2 discussions. However, the text also states that the release of these funds must occur before Phase 2 negotiations commence, creating a paradox where Iran’s financial commitments are both deferred and immediate.
What makes Article 11 unique is its stipulation that Iran’s central bank will determine the beneficiary of the released funds. This contrasts with previous agreements, such as the 2023 hostage deal, where frozen assets were allocated to non-sanctioned beneficiaries like humanitarian organizations. By allowing Iran’s central bank to dictate the recipients, the U.S. is essentially granting the country greater autonomy over its financial resources, a move that could bolster its economic resilience.
Strategic Implications
The MOU’s structure reflects a deliberate strategy to grant Iran immediate benefits while keeping the U.S. on a path of continued commitments. This approach not only addresses Iran’s pressing needs but also sets the stage for a more permanent agreement. The interplay between the two phases ensures that the U.S. remains in a position of leverage, as it must secure Iran’s cooperation on future terms to maintain its economic concessions.
McGurk highlights that this agreement is part of a broader pattern in U.S.-Iran diplomacy. By offering significant financial and logistical support, the U.S. aims to stabilize the region and reduce the risk of further escalation. However, the long-term success of the agreement will depend on how effectively both sides navigate the negotiations in Phase 2. As the 60-day period unfolds, the true test of this memorandum will be whether it can evolve into a durable and equitable framework for both nations.
