Steve Rosenberg: Russia seeks diplomatic and economic gains from Iran war

Steve Rosenberg: Russia seeks diplomatic and economic gains from Iran war

In just seven days, two calls have occurred between the leaders of Russia and Iran. As the US and Israel intensify their strikes on Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin is positioning himself as a global mediator. This claim, however, faces scrutiny. The Kremlin’s leader had initiated a large-scale military operation in Ukraine in 2022, which the UN General Assembly denounced as a breach of the UN Charter.

Russia maintains a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with Iran, though this agreement lacks a formal mutual defense clause. This week, Putin reaffirmed Moscow’s “unwavering support” for Tehran, despite ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. Instead of a direct alliance, Russia offers diplomatic mediation, as highlighted in a Monday conversation with Donald Trump. According to the Kremlin, Putin “expressed several thoughts aimed at a swift diplomatic resolution of the Iran conflict, based among other things on contacts with leaders of Gulf states, the president of Iran, and leaders of other countries.”

The initiative serves dual purposes: enhancing Russia’s standing in the Middle East and strengthening ties with Washington. With Trump’s administration, the Kremlin aims to leverage its influence for strategic advantage. This explains Putin’s measured approach toward criticizing Trump over the Iran conflict. “Putin wants to be helpful,” Trump stated after the call. “I said, ‘You could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with. That would be more helpful.'”

While advocating for “de-escalation” in the Iran crisis, Russia also capitalizes on economic opportunities. Recent oil price surges, which have pushed crude to nearly $120 per barrel, offer significant financial benefits. Despite a period of lower prices, the current level remains above Russia’s federal budget threshold of $59 per barrel. Trump’s suggestion to waive oil-related sanctions on certain nations further bolsters Moscow’s gains, potentially providing a substantial windfall.

Zelensky, Ukraine’s leader, warned that easing sanctions on Russia would be a “serious blow” to Kyiv. Meanwhile, the pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda expressed optimism, declaring, “Expensive oil is a reason [for the West] to cancel sanctions.” Some Russian outlets, however, have been critical. “The ‘peace president’ has simply lost his mind,” read a Tuesday headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets. “The Emperor has no clothes. Or rather, no sanity.”