Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Last week, Lebanon initiated discussions with Israel, yet the government seems to hold little leverage in the negotiations. President Joseph Aoun, who assumed office following a destructive conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, has long sought to dismantle the militia’s arsenal. His vision, however, faces resistance from a group that has become deeply entrenched in both political and social spheres.

Hezbollah, or the Party of God, was formed in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon. The militia has since been backed by Iran, with its mission centered on eradicating Israeli presence. Despite the 2006 UN Resolution 1701 demanding disarmament, the group’s weapons remain in place. The Taif Agreement of 1989, which ended Lebanon’s civil war, called for militia disarmament, but Hezbollah retained its arms by framing itself as a resistance movement.

Aoun’s administration has championed a policy of “state monopoly on arms,” aiming to centralize control over weapons. This approach was tested in 2024 when a fragile ceasefire ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah. Though the deal halted hostilities, Israel continued attacks, citing Hezbollah-linked targets. In some regions, the conflict persisted, with Israeli drones occasionally buzzing over east Beirut.

During a meeting at Baabda Palace last August, Aoun expressed confidence in his ability to address Hezbollah’s weapons issue. “I was born an optimist,” he remarked. But with Hezbollah’s influence growing, the president now faces a dilemma. The militia, which operates as a political party and social organization, controls key areas like Dahieh and the Bekaa Valley. Its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, has refused to consider full disarmament, even as Israeli strikes intensified.

After a recent US-Israeli assault on Tehran killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah retaliated with rocket attacks. This escalation followed weeks of Israeli air strikes that claimed over 300 lives in a single day. Aoun, seeking to end the violence, proposed direct talks with Israel—a bold move for two nations that don’t recognize each other. The ambassadors’ meeting in Washington, scheduled for Tuesday, focuses on securing a ceasefire.

With Hezbollah’s grip on power, the Lebanese government’s options appear limited. The militia’s refusal to negotiate, coupled with Israel’s ongoing attacks, leaves Aoun with few choices. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he warned during our August conversation. The question remains: can these talks lead to lasting peace, or will Lebanon remain caught in a cycle of conflict?

“I was born an optimist,” he told me.

Lebanon’s fragile stability hinges on resolving the tension between its government and Hezbollah. The militia’s dual role as a military force and political entity complicates efforts to disarm it. While Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, territorial disputes lingered, and the 2006 war never fully resolved the issue. Now, with new attacks and stalled negotiations, the path to peace remains uncertain.