How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Influence the Iran Conflict

US President Donald Trump insists his nation possesses a “virtually unlimited supply” of essential armaments. Iran’s defense ministry counters by asserting its ability to endure beyond the initial US plans. While stockpiles alone might not determine the conflict’s result—Ukraine faced overwhelming Russian firepower early on—they are undeniably a major element.

The conflict has seen relentless activity since its inception. Both factions are exhausting their munitions at a pace exceeding production. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reports over 2,000 strikes by the US and Israel, each requiring multiple weapons. Iran, meanwhile, has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones. Many of these have been intercepted, yet the sustained intensity of combat shows no sign of easing.

Western analysts note a drop in Iran’s missile output. Firepower has shifted from hundreds on the first day to dozens now. Before the war, estimates placed Iran’s short-range missile stockpile at over 2,000 units. Exact figures remain classified, as military sources guard their inventory details closely.

“Iran’s ballistic missile launches have decreased by 86% since the conflict began,” said Gen Dan Caine, America’s top commander. Centcom adds a 23% reduction in the past 24 hours.

Iran had mass-produced tens of thousands of Shahed drones prior to the war. The technology was shared with Russia, which used it effectively in Ukraine. The US also adopted the design. However, Caine reports a 73% decline in Iran’s drone activity, suggesting a potential shift in strategy.

US and Israeli jets now control the skies over Iran. Most of its air defenses have been neutralized, and its air force is no longer a credible threat. The next phase targets Iran’s missile and drone launchers, along with its weapon stockpiles and production facilities. This could weaken its combat capacity, though complete eradication of its arsenal may prove challenging.

Iran spans an area three times that of France, allowing weapons to remain concealed. Historical examples, such as Israel’s three-year campaign against Hamas and the US’s year-long strikes on Yemen, show that air superiority does not always guarantee total destruction. The US, though the world’s most formidable military, relies heavily on costly precision-guided weapons produced in limited quantities.

Trump is expected to convene with defense contractors later this week to accelerate production. This signals potential strain on America’s resources. With greater flexibility for close-range strikes, some pressure may have eased. Caine mentioned a transition from “stand-off weapons” to “stand-in” options like JDAM bombs, which are more affordable and easier to deploy.

Mark Cancian of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlights that the US can now sustain high-level operations with less expensive missiles and bombs. He suggests the current pace might be maintained indefinitely. However, as the war progresses, the list of targets will shrink, leading to a gradual slowdown in attacks.

CSIS’s Cancian also points out that while the US has tens of thousands of JDAM bombs, air defense systems are scarcer. These systems were crucial in countering Iranian retaliation during the conflict’s early stages. The depletion of such resources could affect future operations, even as the war continues.