Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Can the US Maintain Its Conflict in Iran?
On February 28, the United States initiated “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran, marking a significant escalation in the regional tensions. Over the following week, the US conducted thousands of attacks targeting multiple locations, employing over 20 distinct weapon systems across aerial, terrestrial, and maritime domains. This campaign reportedly led to the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, during the initial phase of strikes involving US and Israeli forces.
Confidence in Military Capacity
Despite the intensity of the campaign, US officials have expressed unwavering optimism. President Donald Trump asserted that the nation possesses a “virtually unlimited” arsenal, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, during a visit to Central Command in Florida, declared there is “no hope” for Iran to outlast American forces. However, analysts question whether this confidence aligns with reality, particularly regarding critical stockpiles of advanced weaponry.
“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” said Hegseth, emphasizing the readiness of US stockpiles to support prolonged operations.
“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” added General Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair.
Costly Defensive Challenges
While offensive capabilities seem assured, the defense side presents a different scenario. Iran’s deployment of Shahed 136 drones has tested US countermeasures, with each drone costing between $20,000 and $50,000 to manufacture. Defending against these threats requires costly resources, such as fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles, which amount to $450,000 per unit and $40,000 per hour in operational expenses.
“The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” noted Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”
Grieco highlighted that while the US has experimented with cheaper alternatives, such as interceptor drones, these have not been adopted in sufficient quantities. She pointed out that the most pressing concerns lie with high-grade, long-range missiles and interceptors, which are both expensive and time-consuming to produce.
Strain on High-End Armaments
The demand for advanced systems like the Patriot missile has intensified. These interceptors, priced at approximately $3 million each, are critical for countering Iran’s ballistic missiles. According to Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the US has already consumed a significant portion of its Patriot inventory. He estimated that around 200-300 of these missiles have been used since the conflict began.
“At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots, and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” Cancian remarked.
Cancian further noted that production timelines for high-grade weapons remain a bottleneck. For instance, Lockheed Martin produced just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, suggesting a potential delay in replenishing critical stocks.
Shorter-Range Weapons: A Different Story
Contrastingly, the situation with shorter-range munitions appears more manageable. Cancian stated, “Militarily, I think we could sustain it for a very long time. We have the ground munitions to do that,” indicating the US’s ability to maintain operations using bombs, JDAM kits, and Hellfire missiles. However, the challenge remains in scaling up production for the most advanced systems.
On March 6, Trump convened with defense contractors, announcing plans to quadruple the production of top-tier weapons. The White House claimed the agreement was months in the making, but Grieco questioned the significance of the announcement, suggesting many of these deals had already been finalized.
Lockheed Martin’s commitment to increase Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 units annually has been publicly disclosed, offering a glimmer of hope for replenishing supplies in the coming months.
