The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?

The US Blockade of Iran Is a Gamble. Will It Work?

The United States has the military capacity to enforce a blockade on Gulf traffic, but the question remains: what are the intended outcomes? Retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery told the BBC this morning that such an operation is feasible. “I do think it’s doable,” he said, emphasizing that it poses less risk than confronting Iranian forces directly and creating a scenario where a convoy might be forced to proceed.

President Trump’s recent proposals, such as seizing Kharg Island or escorting convoys through the Strait of Hormuz, carried significant dangers. US forces would have been vulnerable to Iranian missile strikes, drone attacks, and assaults by fast boats. Additionally, the possibility of mines in the water added to the complexity. By contrast, a blockade allows American warships to patrol safely offshore in the Gulf of Oman, monitoring ships exiting Iranian ports and intercepting them as needed. “There’s less risk in this than there is in the very confined area of the Strait,” Montgomery explained.

“They believe they can outweigh this,” said David Satterfield, a former US special envoy for Middle East humanitarian affairs. “That the US will feel pain from oil prices and that the Gulf states will pressure Washington to reopen the Strait.”

Recent actions, like the seizure of the Russian oil tanker Marinera in the northern Atlantic, demonstrate the US’s ability to carry out such operations in diverse locations. However, the effectiveness of this strategy hinges on Iran’s response. Despite months of attacks from the US and Israel, the Iranian regime has shown remarkable resilience in maintaining its petrochemical exports through the Gulf, earning critical revenue. A successful blockade could disrupt this flow, further straining the country’s economy.

Shipping experts are closely tracking the movement of vessels from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz to gauge the blockade’s impact. “I’m literally looking at ships that are going through now,” noted maritime intelligence analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, observed a surge in traffic following Trump’s initial announcement. “We saw a few U turns in the wake of Trump’s original announcement,” he said, describing the previous 48 hours as the busiest period of vessel movement since the war began in late February, with around 30 traceable transits.

With limited activity currently reported, it may take time before the US navy intercepts ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. The ongoing ceasefire has transformed the conflict into a standoff between two blockades, with the global economy as a key player. China’s role in persuading Iran to engage in diplomatic talks in Islamabad has raised hopes that Washington’s latest maneuver could apply additional pressure. As the world’s largest importer of Iranian oil, China is particularly sensitive to any prolonged disruption in supply.

Donald Trump’s decision represents a strategic gamble. The outcome could influence international markets, test Iran’s endurance, and determine whether the blockade will achieve its economic and political goals.