Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Operation Epic Fury and Initial Strikes
On February 28, the U.S. initiated Operation Epic Fury against Iran. In the subsequent week, thousands of attacks were launched across the country, involving over 20 weapon systems operating in air, land, and sea domains. The first wave of strikes, which included a U.S.-Israeli collaboration, resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Despite this, President Trump has indicated the conflict could extend beyond a few weeks, stating the U.S. has the “capability to go far longer than that.”
Confidence in Military Capacity
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, during a visit to U.S. Central Command in Florida on March 5, emphasized the nation’s “virtually unlimited” weaponry. “We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” he asserted. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed this sentiment, claiming “sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand” exist for both offensive and defensive operations.
Economic Realities of the Conflict
However, the cost of maintaining this campaign raises concerns. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, pointed out that while the U.S. has ample lower-grade weapons, the highest-end systems—such as long-range missiles and interceptors—face limitations. “There are real limitations on stockpiles there,” she noted. The Shahed-136 drones Iran has deployed cost between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce, but defending against them requires expensive resources. Fighter jets armed with AIM-9 missiles cost $450,000 each, plus $40,000 per hour to operate.
“The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” said Grieco. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”
Despite these challenges, Cancian argued the U.S. could sustain the war for an extended period with ground-based munitions. Yet, for ballistic missile defense, the reliance on Patriot systems, priced at around $3 million each, creates a bottleneck. Cancian estimated that 200-300 Patriots have already been used, with stocks depleting rapidly. He highlighted that Lockheed Martin shipped only 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, suggesting production constraints.
“If you went to the company today and said I want to buy one more Patriot, it would take at least two years for that Patriot to show up,” said Cancian.
Production Plans and Skepticism
On March 6, Trump met with defense firms and claimed manufacturers had agreed to quadruple production of top-tier weapons. The White House noted the meeting was planned for weeks, but Grieco questioned its significance. “I found that to be like a non-announcement,” she remarked, as most agreements had already been disclosed. The urgency of replenishing high-grade stockpiles remains a critical factor in determining the war’s sustainability.
