Ships took advantage of an opening in the Strait of Hormuz. But it may be closing

Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Surges, Then Slows Amid Evacuation Pause

Ships took advantage of an opening - Recent weeks have brought a notable increase in maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil trade. However, this uptick appears to be temporary, as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has temporarily halted its evacuation plan following a critical incident in the Gulf of Oman. The strategic waterway, located between Iran and Oman, has seen a dramatic shift in vessel traffic, with numbers rebounding to levels not witnessed in three months, only to decline again as tensions resurface.

Surge in Activity Sparks Optimism

According to tracking data from MarineTraffic, a staggering 73 vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, the highest number since the conflict with Iran escalated in late February. This represents a more than doubling of the previous day’s traffic, signaling a cautious but significant return to normal operations. The revival in movement is attributed to the U.S. lifting sanctions on Iranian oil earlier in the week, a move tied to the ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran. This development has emboldened shipping companies to resume transit, albeit under heightened scrutiny.

Alongside the sanctions relief, the IMO and other international bodies launched a coordinated humanitarian initiative to evacuate 11,000 stranded seafarers and 500 ships from the strait. The effort aimed to clear the region gradually, ensuring vessels moved safely through newly designated routes. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles and former senior executive with a major Middle East shipping line, highlighted the strategic focus of the evacuation plan. “What we’re seeing are the ships that were sitting in the Gulf for this elongated period of time starting to move out with a focus on humanitarian aid to get the seafarers out and then a couple of chosen tankers when sanctions were lifted,” he said. “This isn’t just a full-fledged green flag, everyone start running through the strait. It’s a measured response to the situation.”

Rebuilding Confidence in the Strait

Before the conflict, the strait typically saw 110 to 160 vessels daily, a figure that plummeted to fewer than ten per day during the war. The recent surge marks a hopeful step toward restoring regular traffic, but it comes with lingering concerns. The IMO, in collaboration with Iran and Oman, created two new shipping lanes—north of the strait near Iran and south closer to Oman—to mitigate risks from mines and other threats. These lanes were designed to allow ships to transit safely, with direct coordination between the agencies and vessel operators.

Companies had been operating in a “wait and see” mode, carefully weighing the risks of navigating the strait during the conflict. The IMO’s evacuation plan offered a structured approach, ensuring vessels moved out of the region under controlled conditions. However, the pause in the initiative has raised questions about the sustainability of this progress. A vessel was struck in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday, prompting the IMO to suspend its evacuation efforts. A U.S. official confirmed the ship was hit by an Iranian drone attack, though details remain scarce. Iran has not yet claimed responsibility for the incident.

Shifting Dynamics and Security Concerns

Friday’s traffic levels dropped sharply, with the IMO’s warning that ships should avoid the southern routes near Oman creating uncertainty. The message implies that safe passage will now be contingent on Iran’s approval, potentially complicating future movements. This shift has sparked worries among shipping companies about the risk of further attacks, particularly as vessels attempt to enter or exit the strait in proximity to Oman. “The ships actually transiting Hormuz this week are still mostly Iranian-flagged and some (Taiwanese) Evergreen ships,” said Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, a global shipping logistics firm. “The major global carriers haven’t returned yet, so it’s closer to status quo than a real shift.”

Insurance companies have also played a pivotal role in shaping the situation. Due to wartime clauses, several insurers have withdrawn coverage from ships traversing the strait, adding financial pressure to operators. Some major shipping lines, including Hapag-Lloyd, have relied on U.S. naval escorts to navigate the passage, but this support has been inconsistent. The incident on Thursday may have accelerated the withdrawal of such protections, leaving ships more vulnerable.

Global Implications of the Pause

The IMO’s Secretary-General, Arsenio Dominguez, stated that the decision to pause the evacuation plan was precautionary, even though the attacked vessel “did not transit under IMO’s evacuation framework.” This underscores the organization’s cautious approach in the face of renewed threats. For months, the strait has been a hotspot for attacks, with at least 46 strikes recorded on vessels and 14 lives lost. These incidents have kept shipping companies on edge, with many still hesitant to commit to full operations.

The current situation reflects a delicate balance between progress and peril. While the initial surge in traffic suggests a thaw in the crisis, the pause in the IMO’s efforts highlights the persistence of underlying risks. Analysts argue that the evacuation plan was a crucial step in stabilizing the region, but its suspension may delay the full recovery of maritime activity. “The focus has shifted from emergency relief to assessing the long-term safety of the strait,” said Dominguez. “This is a necessary pause to evaluate the current threats and ensure a sustainable plan moving forward.”

With the IMO’s plan on hold, the outlook for the strait’s traffic remains uncertain. Shipping companies are now recalibrating their strategies, with some opting to reroute or delay shipments. The ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, combined with the strategic importance of the strait, mean that even small disruptions can have far-reaching consequences. As the situation evolves, the key will be whether the IMO can restore confidence and secure the necessary safety guarantees to resume operations without further interruptions.

For now, the strait stands at a crossroads. The recent activity has demonstrated the potential for recovery, but the warning from Iran and the incident in the Gulf of Oman serve as reminders of the fragility of the situation. The global shipping industry, reliant on this narrow passage for a significant portion of its oil supply, remains vigilant as it awaits further clarity on the path forward.